PARIS : Réunion de la BCE, l’analyse de Sébastien GALY
L’analyse de Sébastien GALY (Stratégiste Macro Senior chez Nordea Asset Management), concernant les dernière réunion monétaire de la BCE, tenue cet après-midi.
L’annonce de l’augmentation du programme PEPP (de 600 milliards d’euros supplémentaires) par la BCE, a notamment eu pour conséquence immédiate un repli marqué des taux obligataires souverains à 10 ans italien et grec (de respectivement 15 et 12 points de base).
The ECB delivered a 600bn EUR package with broad support as we expected when economic consensus was 500bn. The PEPP Covid-19 program is extended to June 2021 with coupons and principals reinvested till at least end of 2022. 2021 growth is seen at 5.2% and 2022 at 3.3% in a heroic forecasting effort of the baseline forecast. She welcomed the 750bn EUR package proposed by the European Commission but avoided any discussion on credit contrary to our expectation as well as any mention of yield control on credit (not sovereign as it would give a free option to Italy). The ECB offered a door to find a compromise with the German constitutional court. The ECB reviewed the effectiveness and cost benefit of the policies and this in line with the idea of proportionality which is another way that it reviewed there is a debate between sovereign and credit purchases. For now, the ECB doesn’t want to clarify this stance. The consequence of the better than expected PEPP is a rally in the Italian 10Y of 15bp and 12bp in Greece.